Two questions a buyer should ask any forecaster: how wrong are you versus just assuming a normal year (the market's default), and how early do you see trouble. Both answered below from the archived walk-forward record — every number reproducible, losses included.
For every crop year with a realized anomaly beyond ±6%: the first date our published 180-day forecast leaned the right way (beyond ±0.2σ), and how many days that preceded the matching verified public event. Positive lead = we signalled first. Years where we never crossed are absent — that is the honest miss list in the tables below.