SpatioNiti

Cocoa Supply Wire

Twenty years of day-by-day supply reasoning for the five cocoa belts — what the weather was doing to supply, which driver dominated, and the nearest verified supply event. Pick any date from 2006 to six months ahead. Built from observed weather vs the 2005–19 seasonal normal; no price data of any kind.

Event impact map. Pulsing markers = the five belts, coloured by that day's supply conditions (red = stressed, green = favourable, grey = neutral). Arcs animate from belts with an active verified event toward the EU grind hubs — the flow the event touches.

Supply-event feed

Signals: vapour-pressure deficit, reference evapotranspiration, soil temperature and shortwave radiation, weighted 1.0/1.0/0.5/0.3, z-scored per day-of-year vs 2005–19 and sign-flipped so positive = better for supply. Bands: ±0.2σ and ±0.6σ. Days after the as-of date use current weather-model output for ~16 days, then the seasonal normal. Events are curated supply-chain facts — weather, disease, policy, farmgate, logistics — never price moves. © 2026 SpatioNiti.